Afrique subsaharienne devrait représenter 22% de la population mondiale vers 2050 au lieu de 14% aujourd’hui, mais les migrants subsahariens ne devraient représenter que 3 ou 4% de la population de l’Europe en 2050, selon les données de l’Institut national d’études démographiques (INED) publiés ce mercredi 12 septembre.
Les données publiées par les démographes de l’INED tordent ainsi le cou à des projections alarmistes faisant été d’une « ruée vers l’Europe » des migrants subsahariens, supposés peupler l’Europe à hauteur de 25% d’ici 30 ans.
« L’ordre de grandeur le plus réaliste est cinq fois moindre », indique le rapport, qui explique que « ces annonces fracassantes reposent sur un modèle de vases communicants qui méconnaît trois données de base ».
La première concerne le fait que comparée aux autres régions, l’Afrique subsaharienne « émigre peu, en raison même de sa pauvreté ». Et lorsque l’Afrique subsaharienne émigre, « c’est à 70% dans un autre pays subsaharien et à 15% seulement en Europe, le reste se répartissant entre les pays du Golfe et l’Amérique du Nord ».
Enfin, « si l’on intègre la croissance démographique projetée par l’ONU, les migrants subsahariens auront beau occuper une place grandissante dans les sociétés du Nord, ils resteront très minoritaires : tout au plus 3 à 4 % de la population vers 2050 – très loin des 25% redoutés ».
« En France, les immigrés subsahariens avoisineraient 3% de la population, contre 1,5% aujourd’hui », indique en outre le rapport de l’INED. « On peut certes majorer ces proportions pour intégrer l’effet éventuel d’un développement économique de l’Afrique favorable aux projets migratoires. Elles restent cependant très en deçà des prophéties alarmistes aujourd’hui en vogue : il y a loin de 4% à 25% », estime l’INED.
« La donne ne change guère si l’on se concentre sur les jeunes : compte tenu des pyramides des âges projetées en 2050 aux pays d’origine comme aux pays de destination, les Subsahariens représenteraient moins de 5% des moins de trente ans vivant en Europe de l’Ouest et non pas… plus de la moitié », affirme le rapport.
« Par ailleurs, agiter le spectre d’une “ruée” de l’Afrique qui ruinerait la protection sociale de l’Europe, c’est oublier que les migrants sont aussi des producteurs, des consommateurs, des contribuables et des cotisants », rappelle l’INED.
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